Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-14 06:31Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the current trend of propylene include sufficient supply but insufficient demand in the main downstream PP, small price differences between PP powder, granules, and propylene, and low acceptance of high - priced propylene. Most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene. Also, the PDH cost has collapsed, with the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly [3]. - The positive factor is that the cracking failure of Yulong has led to a slight reduction in the supply in the Shandong market [3]. - The negative factors are that after the decline of propane, the PDH profit has expanded, but propylene and PP cannot accept high profits, which exerts pressure. The spot market is also weak, with spot prices falling continuously, and high - priced products are still resisted [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6000 - 6400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 0.0797 and the current volatility's historical percentage (3 - year) at 0.537 [2]. Propylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits, with a 50% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 6500 - 6600 for PL2601. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6600) to collect premiums can reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a 50% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular inventory for procurement is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an advisable entry price of 6000 for PL2601. Selling put options (PL2601P5900) to collect premiums can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a 25% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 40 - 60 [2]. Industrial Data Summarization - The report provides a large amount of data on upstream, mid - stream, and downstream prices, as well as profit margins and price differentials of propylene and related products from September 30, 2025, to October 13, 2025, including Brent, WTI, various raw material prices, propylene market prices in different regions, downstream product prices, and corresponding profit indicators [7].