HONGLU(SZ:002541) EBSCN·2025-10-14 08:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company signed new orders amounting to 22.267 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with Q3 new orders at 7.9 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The production volume of steel structure products reached approximately 3.61 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with Q3 production at about 1.25 million tons, up 9% year-on-year [1][2] - The proportion of large orders increased significantly, accounting for about 29% in Q3, up from 20% in Q4 2024, indicating a recovery trend [3] - The average price of large orders was approximately 5,189 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [3] - The company's smart transformation is expected to enhance production capacity utilization and reduce unit production costs, strengthening its competitive advantage and market share in the long term [3] Summary by Sections Orders - Excluding steel price fluctuations, the order volume in Q3 2025 increased by 4% year-on-year, with the average price of hot-rolled coils up 0.5% year-on-year [2] - The order volume growth rate in Q3 2025 showed a decline compared to Q2 2025 [2] Production - The production volume in Q3 2025 was 1.25 million tons, up 9% year-on-year, with a slight decrease from Q2 2025's production of 1.31 million tons [2] - The company has invested significantly in welding robot equipment and restructured production lines, leading to a sustained high growth rate in production [2] Large Orders - The proportion of large orders has shown a clear recovery, with a significant increase in the average price of large orders [3] - The main contributors to large orders in Q3 2025 were in the renewable energy and internet sectors [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 747 million, 774 million, and 854 million yuan respectively, with a maintained "Buy" rating [3][4]