CATL(SZ:300750) Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-14 09:14Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The lithium battery equipment sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with significant growth expected in the coming years due to the lithium battery expansion cycle and solid-state battery innovation [3][10] - Global lithium battery shipments are projected to grow significantly, with total shipments expected to reach 1,766 GWh by 2025 and 5,154 GWh by 2030, indicating a robust long-term growth potential [9][35] - The capital expenditure for leading domestic lithium battery manufacturers has shown a positive trend, with a notable increase in spending expected in 2024 and 2025 [14][17] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Equipment Sector - The global lithium battery equipment market is expected to reach 497 billion CNY in 2025, 810 billion CNY in 2026, and 832 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - The solid-state battery innovation cycle is anticipated to accelerate, with significant investments exceeding 10 billion CNY in domestic solid-state battery capacity planned [3][9] - The production processes for solid-state batteries are evolving, with new equipment and technologies being developed to enhance production efficiency [3][9] Market Dynamics - The global lithium battery shipment volume is expected to grow from 209 GWh in 2020 to 1,766 GWh in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 53% [9][35] - The domestic leading lithium battery manufacturers are expected to see their capital expenditures increase, with a total of 167 billion CNY in capital expenditure recorded in Q4 2024, marking a 4% year-on-year growth [14][17] - The penetration of solid-state battery technology is projected to create a new market segment, with potential revenue contributions of 54 billion CNY in 2026 and 515 billion CNY by 2030 [3][9] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights various development paths for lithium battery equipment companies, including cross-industry expansion, platform development, and product line diversification [3][9] - Companies such as Delong Laser, Xinyuren, and Qiaocheng Ultrasonic are recommended for their potential in the solid-state battery sector, while others like Xian Dao Intelligent and Liyuan Heng are noted for their platform development strategies [3][9]