JAC(SH:600418) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-14 13:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jianghuai Automobile is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The rapid increase in deliveries of the Zun Jie S800 in September is expected to support order accumulation [1] - Despite a 15.50% year-on-year decline in overall vehicle sales to 33,500 units in September, the new energy vehicle sales increased by 18.69% to 3,600 units, driven by the Zun Jie brand [3][4] - The company forecasts revenues of 51.56 billion, 66.95 billion, and 87.95 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 460 million, 1.58 billion, and 3.77 billion yuan for the same years [3][5] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, Jianghuai Automobile's total vehicle sales were 33,500 units, down 15.50% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in SUV, pickup, and multi-functional commercial vehicle sales [3] - The Zun Jie S800 has achieved over 15,000 pre-orders within four months of its launch, with September marking its first full month of deliveries, achieving sales of 2,300 units [3][4] Market Positioning - The luxury car market shows strong consumer purchasing power, and domestic luxury brands like Zun Jie are expected to capture significant market share due to their technological advantages and higher cost-performance ratio [4] - The company is committed to advancing the Zun Jie project, collaborating with Huawei to build a dedicated team and enhance digital capabilities [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Jianghuai Automobile are as follows: 51.56 billion yuan in 2025, 66.95 billion yuan in 2026, and 87.95 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 460 million, 1.58 billion, and 3.77 billion yuan [5][7] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 10.6% in 2023 to 16.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][7]