YIWU CCC(SH:600415) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-15 01:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][2] Core Views - The company has entered an expansion phase driven by the opening of new markets, enhancing its trade service capabilities. The third quarter saw accelerated performance with revenue reaching 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.766 billion yuan, up 100.52% year-on-year [1][2] - The company benefits from the global digital trade center that commenced its recruitment work in June, leading to increased entrance qualification fees and steady rental growth in its core business. The cross-border payment business also contributed significantly, with transaction volume exceeding 27 billion yuan, a growth of over 35% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11.30 billion yuan, net profit of 2.68 billion yuan - 2024: Revenue of 15.74 billion yuan, net profit of 3.07 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 20.72 billion yuan, net profit of 4.69 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 27.49 billion yuan, net profit of 7.03 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 33.60 billion yuan, net profit of 8.39 billion yuan [3][15] - The company’s gross margin improved to 45.41%, an increase of 15.31 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher-margin entrance qualification fees and cost optimization [1][2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached 9.605 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2021.98% year-on-year, benefiting from the collection of fees from the global digital trade center and sales from commercial properties [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 22.3, 14.9, and 12.5 respectively, reflecting an upward revision in net profit forecasts due to the opening of the global digital trade center [2][3] - The estimated EBIT margin is expected to improve from 15.90% in 2023 to 30.48% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][15]