Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the mass catering sector, focusing on "New Huai Cuisine" with a price range of 50-70 RMB per meal, holding a 0.2% market share in 2023 [1][20]. - The mass catering market in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2023 to 2028, with the company positioned to benefit from this trend [2][58]. - The company plans to expand its store count significantly, aiming for 800 stores by the end of 2025 and 1,000 by the end of 2026 [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates a fully-owned chain model with a focus on community-based dining, having 752 stores by September 2025 [1][20]. - It has a centralized supply chain that has evolved from regional sourcing to a nationwide cold chain network, enhancing efficiency [20]. 2. Market Dynamics - The mass catering market in China reached 36,187 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for 88.7% of the Chinese dining market, with a projected CAGR of 8.7% from 2023 to 2028 [2][58]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with the company leading in market share among mass catering brands [2]. 3. Business Strategy - The company targets the 50-100 RMB price segment, emphasizing quality and cost control through centralized procurement and processing [2][3]. - It has a multi-layered incentive system for employees, ensuring alignment of interests between management and staff [27][30]. 4. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 45.50 billion RMB in 2023, a 42% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.32 billion RMB, reflecting a 124% growth [32]. - Forecasts for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 7.50 billion RMB, 9.22 billion RMB, and 11.32 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.64, 0.78, and 0.96 RMB [4][13]. 5. Expansion Plans - The company plans to accelerate store openings, with a target of 800 stores by the end of 2025 and 1,000 by the end of 2026, focusing on both domestic and international markets [3][11]. - The sub-brand "Cai Shou" aims to capture the community dining segment with a lower price point of 20-40 RMB, enhancing overall market penetration [3][11]. 6. Supply Chain and Cost Management - The company has achieved a gross margin of 70.5% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from improved supply chain management and cost control [10][33]. - Employee and rental costs are optimized, with projections indicating a stable cost structure moving forward [10][38].
小菜园（00999）：投资价值分析报告：大众餐饮高性价比标杆，供应链提效稳质价