中泰期货原糖周报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under significant pressure as the arrival of imported logs is expected to increase in October, which is a peak season for imports, and subsequent arrivals are likely to be concentrated [7]. - The demand in the spot market shows mixed performance, with better sales of knot - free and integrated timber, but relatively low orders from sawmills and no large - scale orders. Short - term observation of terminal orders is recommended [9]. - The fundamentals of the market are weakly volatile, and the downstream demand is stable. As the delivery month of November approaches, the long - short game in the futures market is volatile, and long - position holders are reducing their positions. Short - term observation and cautious operation are advised [17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Log Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Foreign supply indicators such as the number of arriving ships, arrival volume, and imports of various types of logs show changes. For example, the imports of coniferous logs, radiata pine, and other types have decreased compared to the previous period. The arrival of ships is expected to increase this week, and overall, October is a peak import season, with subsequent arrivals likely to be concentrated, leading to obvious pressure on the supply side [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly shipment volume has decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The shipments of knot - free and integrated timber in the spot market are relatively better, while sawmill orders are low. - Inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate and accumulate under the situation of stable demand and increased arrivals [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Outer - market quotes: The outer - market price of New Zealand radiata pine in October is expected to increase slightly, but as the blue - stain period approaches, the domestic bargaining power will increase, and the outer - market price support may not be sustainable. - Spot prices: The spot prices are relatively stable as the peak season approaches, and traders are more willing to support prices. The prices of knot - free and sawed timber are polarized, and the downstream acceptance is limited in the short term, so prices are expected to remain stable. - Futures prices: The fundamentals are weakly volatile, and as the delivery month approaches, the long - short game is intense, with long - position holders reducing their positions. - Spreads: The spot spreads are relatively stable, mainly reflected in integrated and sawed timber. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine [11][13]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The import cost has increased slightly, and the import profit has decreased. As the off - season approaches, the outer - market quotes are difficult to sustain, and the import cost is expected to return to normal [15]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot market is stable, but sawmill orders are low. The supply side is under pressure due to concentrated arrivals. - For the futures market, short - term observation and cautious operation are recommended due to the weakly volatile fundamentals, stable downstream demand, and intense long - short game as the delivery month approaches [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The log balance sheet shows the changes in supply, demand, and inventory on a weekly basis from June 6, 2025, to October 10, 2025. The supply includes the number and weight of arriving logs, and the demand includes daily shipment volume and apparent demand. The inventory is divided by region and tree species, and the supply - demand gap also varies over time [19]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply - side - New Zealand log shipments: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. - Log imports: The imports of various types of logs have shown different trends, with a general decrease in the imports of some coniferous logs compared to the previous period. - Imports by tree species: The imports of radiata pine, spruce, and other coniferous logs have decreased to varying degrees [7]. 3.2 Demand - side - Daily log shipment volume: It has decreased slightly compared to the previous period, and sawmill orders are relatively low. - Real estate: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document [9]. 3.3 Downstream Analysis - Timber analysis - price: The prices of timber are relatively stable, with polarization between knot - free and sawed timber. - Timber analysis - profit: The profits of timber products are relatively stable but generally low. - Downstream substitutes - Aluminum alloy analysis: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document [11][15]. 3.4 Inventory - side - Inventory summary: The overall inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate and accumulate under the situation of stable demand and increased arrivals. - Inventory by tree species: The inventories of radiata pine, spruce, and North American timber have different trends. - Inventory by region: The inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu have increased [9]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Log import cost and profit: The import cost has increased slightly, and the import profit has decreased. As the off - season approaches, the outer - market quotes are difficult to sustain, and the import cost is expected to return to normal [15]. - Log delivery profit: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - Log outer - market quotes: The outer - market price of New Zealand radiata pine in October is expected to increase slightly, but the outer - market price support may not be sustainable. - Seasonality of radiata pine and spruce prices: The document shows the price trends of different specifications of radiata pine and spruce over different months in 2024 and 2025, reflecting certain seasonal characteristics. - Seasonality of radiata pine and spruce spreads: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. - Basis between radiata pine and LG: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. - Seasonal chart and inter - monthly spreads of LG main contracts: The document shows the price trends of the LG main contract over different months in 2024 and 2025 [11][87][107].