YIWU CCC(SH:600415) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-16 01:00Market Outlook - The credit spread in the bond market is expected to continue its oscillating adjustment in Q4 2025, with greater potential pressure on the long end [2][10][11] - The short-term bond market may still be recovering from the overdrawn performance at the beginning of the year, while the mid-term may face a shift in market logic [2][11] Credit Strategy - It is recommended to continue controlling duration in credit bonds, with a preference for mid-to-short term bonds and carry strategies [3][11] - In a liquidity easing environment, the short end remains relatively certain, and the carry space is at a relatively high level compared to earlier this year [3][11] Financial Bonds - Attention should be paid to participation opportunities in the price discovery of new financial bonds, as the difficulty of trading perpetual bonds is increasing [4][11] - After the new VAT regulations, the pricing of new financial bonds may still be in the discovery phase, with older bonds potentially offering better value [4][11] Investment Opportunities - Focus on primary market opportunities for bonds with maturities within three years, particularly those with coupon rates between 2.2% and 2.8% [4][11] - Consider mid-to-short term urban investment bonds with implied ratings of AA or higher, yielding above 2.2% [4][11] - Explore high-grade private placement bonds or perpetual bonds with implied ratings of AA+ or above, also yielding above 2.2% [4][11] Institutional Behavior - Public funds are facing significant challenges on the liability side, with a potential shift in credit bond demand structure [10][11] - The expansion of credit bond ETFs is being driven by policy, but the pace may slow down in the short term due to the recent launch of additional products [10][11] Industry Insights - The textile and apparel industry is expected to show a moderate recovery, with domestic retail sales of clothing and textiles increasing by 2.9% year-on-year [14][15] - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector is anticipated to maintain robust growth, with retail sales in the first eight months of 2025 showing a significant improvement compared to the previous year [17][18] - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing a clear trend of global supply chain adjustments, leading to changes in packaging dynamics [19][20]