Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:30Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 15, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Jianing (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0020097) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 14, 2025, a total of 488,900 tons of cotton have been notarized and inspected in the 24/25 season. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang has passed the halfway point, with northern Xinjiang in the later stage and the machine - picking progress in Kashgar and Kizilsu in southern Xinjiang slightly slower. The current purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang is mostly between 6.05 - 6.3 yuan/kg, with southern Xinjiang slightly higher. The production increase expectation has been slightly revised, but the downstream peak season is gradually weakening, market confidence is insufficient, and the supply pressure of new cotton will gradually emerge. Under the high - yield pattern, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. Also, Sino - US tariff policy disturbances have resurfaced. The strategy is still to sell on rebounds [4]. Summary by Directory Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for cotton is 13,000 - 13,600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0703 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.1146 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a selling ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 13,500 - 13,600. They can also sell call options (CF601C13600) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a selling ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 13,000 - 13,100. They can also sell put options (CF601P13000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a selling ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Some producing areas in southern Xinjiang reported lower - than - expected yields per unit, and the lint percentage of new cotton is low, so the high - yield level may be revised compared to the previous expectation. Also, yarn mills have low raw material inventories and have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton stocks [6] Bearish Factors - The US announced that it will impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1. The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, and there is significant hedging pressure above the cotton price. In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.967 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.43% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.97% [5][6] Futures and Price Index Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,270, up 5 with a 0.04% increase; Cotton 05 closed at 13,330, up 10 with a 0.08% increase; Cotton 09 closed at 13,505, up 5 with a 0.04% increase; Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,325, up 35 with a 0.18% increase; Cotton yarn 05 and 09 had a closing price of 0, down 100% [7] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,404, down 86; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 60, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 175, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 235, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,040, down 15; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,939, down 17; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 670, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 14,674, down 81 with a - 0.55% decrease; CCI 2227B was 12,844, down 66 with a - 0.51% decrease; CCI 2129B was 14,960, down 67 with a - 0.45% decrease; FCI Index S was 13,044, down 8 with a - 0.06% decrease; FCI Index M was 12,808, down 8 with a - 0.06% decrease; FCI Index L was 12,487, down 7 with a - 0.06% decrease [9]