Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-16 06:21Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations are increasing. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term fast - in - fast - out operations. Pullbacks are considered opportunities for medium - to long - term long positions, and existing long positions should be held with caution. The resistance levels for London gold are 4300 and 4500, and the support is in the 4150 area; for silver, the resistance is 55 and the support is 50 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to be strong. The US dollar index declined, European and American stocks showed mixed performance, Bitcoin continued to fall, and crude oil fluctuated. The silver lease rate rose again, indicating a severe shortage of physical silver. The results of the US "232" investigation on silver and palladium are expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive issue of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on silver and palladium. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4224.9 per ounce, up 1.48%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $52.525 per ounce, up 3.76%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 960.34 yuan per gram, up 2.09%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11966 yuan per kilogram, up 2.3% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations are generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 97.3%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 5.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 94.2%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 2.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 47.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 50.1%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 1.15 tons to 1022.6 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 310.48 tons to 15422.61 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32.7 tons to 1030.4 tons per day; as of the week ending October 10, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.3 tons to 1108.1 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, pay attention to the US September retail sales and PPI data tonight. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be postponed to October 24. In terms of events, there will be intensive speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the US FOMC meeting on October 31. At 21:00 on Thursday, Fed Governor Waller will give a speech; at 00:15 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech. Also, at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions [4].