钛白粉行业的投资机会：“反内卷”背景下

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - China is the world's largest producer of titanium dioxide (TiO2), with a projected capacity share of 56% in 2024, benefiting from the shutdown of several overseas facilities [1][13] - The domestic supply structure of titanium dioxide is characterized by "one strong leader, multiple strong players, and a long tail," with policies emphasizing energy consumption and production processes [2][22] - Domestic demand for titanium dioxide is strongly correlated with the real estate sector, while external demand still presents certain opportunities despite anti-dumping investigations from several countries [3][26] - The price spread in the titanium dioxide industry is currently at a historical low, with significant inventory accumulation due to pressures from both domestic and export demand [4][30] - Approximately 20% of the titanium dioxide production capacity in China is considered outdated, with a notable portion over 20 years old [5][32] Summary by Sections 1. Supply Structure and Market Dynamics - China has significantly increased its titanium dioxide production capacity from 45,000 tons in 2000 to 5.5 million tons in 2024, representing a 56% global share [1][20] - The major players in the titanium dioxide market include Longbai Group, Chemours, Tronox, and Venator, with Longbai Group leading with a capacity of 1.51 million tons [18][20] 2. Policy and Technological Requirements - Recent policies have set stringent requirements for energy consumption and production processes, favoring companies with low-cost and mature chlorination technology [2][22] - The 2023 energy efficiency benchmark and the 2024 industrial structure adjustment guide have implications for the sustainability of production methods [22][23] 3. Demand Correlation and Export Opportunities - The domestic consumption of titanium dioxide is projected at 2.89 million tons in 2024, with a strong correlation to housing starts and completions [24][26] - Despite anti-dumping measures, there are still opportunities for exports, particularly to countries with growing GDPs like India [26][28] 4. Industry Pricing and Inventory Levels - The average operating rate for titanium dioxide in China was 70% in the first eight months of 2025, leading to a significant price decline, with the price spread reaching its lowest since 2006 [4][30] 5. Outdated Production Capacity - The proportion of outdated production capacity in the titanium dioxide industry is approximately 19%, with ongoing assessments to phase out non-compliant facilities [5][32] 6. Focus on Leading Enterprises - Longbai Group is highlighted as a key player due to its comprehensive titanium industry layout, including titanium dioxide, sponge titanium, and zirconium products, with a strong vertical integration strategy [6][35][36]