Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-16 09:59Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Xia Yingying - Research Assistant: Yu Weihan [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is ending, which will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will ease [4]. - Demand: The demand from the organic silicon industry has limited changes, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field remains stable. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook: If the supply - side operating rate declines as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - Core Logic: The price trend of polysilicon futures depends on factors such as the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [9]. - Market Outlook: The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. High volatility and risks are associated with polysilicon futures [10]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan (0.41%) and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan (- 0.41%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 209,588 lots, a daily decrease of 15,480 lots (- 6.88%) and a weekly decrease of 943 lots (- 0.45%) [13]. - The open interest of the main contract is 131,649 lots, a daily decrease of 10,732 lots (- 7.54%) and a weekly decrease of 44,914 lots (- 25.44%) [13]. 2. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 100 yuan (- 1.13%) [21]. - The price of 553 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9250 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 0.54%) [21]. - The price of 421 industrial silicon in Yunnan is 9950 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The total warehouse - receipt volume is 50,291 lots, a decrease of 66 lots (0.21%) from the previous period [36]. - The warehouse - receipt volume in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 223 tons (0.84%) week - on - week [36]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1710 yuan (3.36%) and a weekly increase of 1810 yuan (3.57%) [37]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 266,129 lots, a daily decrease of 10,047 lots (- 3.64%) and a weekly increase of 64,818 lots (32.20%) [37]. - The open interest of the main contract is 78,885 lots, a daily decrease of 1229 lots (- 1.53%) and a weekly decrease of 6102 lots (- 7.18%) [37]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 52.75 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.2 yuan (0.38%) [45]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [45]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 85 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1710 yuan (- 95.26%) and a weekly decrease of 1510 yuan (- 94.67%) [55]. - The total polysilicon warehouse - receipt volume is 7950 lots, a decrease of 100 lots from the previous period [56].