Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-16 10:32Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillatory and Wait-and-See" [7] Core View - The current pulp market supply-demand structure is loose, with significant pressure on the Russian needle basis, and prices remain suppressed in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and avoid blindly chasing short positions. Strategies include going long on the futures side when prices are low and selling out-of-the-money put options on the far-month options side [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 12.80% and a 3-year historical percentile of 19.7% [2] Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2] - For procurement management, when the inventory of paper-making enterprises is low and they hope to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to long pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton [2] Market Quotes - Futures: sp2511 closed at 4856 (+0), sp2601 closed at 5152 (-18) [3] - Spot: Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5500 yuan/ton (-0), Shandong Russian needle at 5000 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4250 yuan/ton (+0) [4] - Port Inventory: As of October 10, port inventory was 2.077 million tons (+44,000 tons) [4] - Month Spread Structure: Wait-and-see on the 11 - 01 reverse spread [4] Core Contradiction - Market sentiment is weak, with light spot trading. Fundamentally, the decline in the quoted price of foreign coniferous pulp, low acceptance of Russian needle spot, and slow destocking of port inventory restrict price performance. Supply pressure persists, with stable overseas coniferous pulp supply. In late August, the pulp shipped to China reached 1.67 million tons, higher than the seasonal average and a 5.7% month-on-month increase [4] - The continuous strengthening of the Russian needle basis is mainly driven by the sharp decline in futures prices, indicating the pressure on the spot market. Downstream demand is weak, with only white cardboard in the seasonal peak season. Other finished paper products face high enterprise inventory and low production profits, and the overall willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient [4] Pulp Quotation - Provides the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and price ranges of various pulp futures contracts, domestic spot pulp, and domestic finished paper products [8] Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the transfer, production cut, and price increase of overseas broadleaf pulp [11] - Negative Factors: High overseas shipments, high port inventory with slow destocking, weak peak-season demand downstream, and low willingness to accept Russian needle warehouse receipts [11]