Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-16 11:14Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 11 - contract of logs has returned to a deep - discount state, similar to the 09 - contract, and it is not unexpected for it to enter the delivery month with a deep discount due to the low willingness of long - position holders to take delivery. The 01 - contract has seen a significant increase in trading volume, becoming the main contract. There are marginal bullish factors for the 01 - contract, but the long - term impact is uncertain [6]. - The recommended strategy is to go short on the 11 - contract and try to go long on the 01 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, companies with long - position exposure can short log futures (lg2511) at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 820 - 830 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, those with short - position exposure can buy log futures (lg2511) at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 780 - 800 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.3 Market Conditions - Futures Market: The lg2511 contract closed at 797 (+4) with a decrease in open interest of 860. The lg2601 contract closed at 824 (+2.5) with an open interest of 11,000 lots [5]. - Spot Market: The spot price remained unchanged [5]. - Valuation: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 831 yuan/cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 836 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong [5]. - Inventory: As of October 10th, the national inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters (+130,000) [6]. 3.4 Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Updated Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiata pine imports | 2025 - 08 - 31 | 1.3 million | - 0.1 million | - 3.7% | Monthly | 10,000 m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 2.99 million | + 0.13 million | + 17.3% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 1,892,000 | + 118,000 | + 71.4% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 880,900 | + 33,007 | - 11.2% | Weekly | m³ | | Demand | Average daily log outbound volume at ports | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 57,300 | - 8,300 | - 7.9% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 34,400 | 0 | + 5.2% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 17,900 | - 8,400 | - 19.0% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Profit | Radiata pine import profit | 2025 - 10 - 17 | - 64 | + 1 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 10 - 17 | - 118 | + 2 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | Outer - market Quote | CFR | 2025 - 10 - 17 | 115 | 0 | - 7.3% | Weekly | US dollars/JASm³ | [10][12] 3.5 Basis Analysis The report provides the basis data for different specifications of logs in various regions, including the basis after conversion, which is calculated as the scaled - up spot price (108%) minus the main - contract futures price plus or minus the premium/discount [9].