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登康口腔(001328):深度研究报告:冷酸愈万象,登峰淬新天

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.06 CNY per share [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the sensitive toothpaste segment, with its core brand "Cold Acid Spirit" holding a 64.7% market share in the retail market for sensitive toothpaste in 2024. The company has achieved steady growth through a high-end strategy and an omnichannel approach, projecting a revenue of 1.56 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of online channels and the emergence of new brands in the oral care market, indicating a shift in market dynamics and a potential for domestic brands to gain market share [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 172.17 million shares and a market capitalization of 6.99 billion CNY. The asset-liability ratio stands at 25.68%, with a net asset value per share of 8.19 CNY [3]. - The management team is experienced and stable, with the controlling shareholder being the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [17][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown robust financial growth, with revenue increasing from 940 million CNY in 2019 to 1.56 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 10.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 161 million CNY in 2024 to 324 million CNY by 2027 [2][22]. - The gross margin improved to 49.4% in 2024, up by 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and the growth of high-margin e-commerce channels [33][34]. Market Dynamics - The oral care market is characterized by high maturity, with a stable demand for basic cleaning products. The market size for oral care in China grew from 38.8 billion CNY in 2017 to 52.2 billion CNY in 2021, with a CAGR of 7.7% [50][53]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of online channels, with e-commerce accounting for 31% of the company's revenue in 2024, up from 6% in 2019 [22][32]. Competitive Positioning - The company has established a strong competitive position in the sensitive toothpaste segment, leveraging its brand recognition and innovative product offerings. The "Cold Acid Spirit" brand is well-known among consumers, and the company is expanding its product matrix to include electric toothbrushes and oral health products [46][49]. - The report notes that domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with a focus on specialized products and effective marketing strategies [6][8].