lu'an EED(SH:601699) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-17 05:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to market performance [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight increase in raw coal production of 0.19% year-on-year, with expectations for a rise in both volume and price in the fourth quarter due to increasing coal prices [8]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 14.069 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.348 billion yuan, down 39.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - The average coal price assumption for 2025 has been revised down from 703 yuan/ton to 544 yuan/ton, leading to adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 35.85 billion yuan - 2025: 31.194 billion yuan - 2026: 32.246 billion yuan - 2027: 33.191 billion yuan - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 2.65 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 8.2% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027 [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.89 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.01 yuan by 2027 [2][9]. Market Data - As of October 16, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 15.93 yuan, with a market capitalization of 47.653 billion yuan [3]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with rates of 60.17%, 60%, and 50.07% for the years 2022-2024 [8]. Comparative Analysis - The company is trading at a 22% discount compared to its peers in the coal industry, which have an average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x [8].