国债期货日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates that the current market sentiment and stock market performance are favorable for a bond market rebound. Traders are advised not to chase the rising prices. Those with existing long positions can continue to hold, while those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions. [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Friday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with long - term bonds showing larger gains. Spot bond yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There were 164.8 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan. [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Over 80 senators in the US Senate are prepared to empower President Trump to impose a maximum 500% tariff on China according to Bessent. The yield of two - year US Treasury bonds dropped to the lowest level since 2022, as credit concerns drove up safe - haven demand. [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The A - share market adjusted more significantly today, with previous hot sectors experiencing sharp declines. Although the broader market has not yet broken out of the range - bound pattern, the ChiNext and STAR markets may enter a medium - term adjustment. Driven by this, treasury bond futures rose across the board, with TL performing the most prominently. [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 17 Price | 2025 - 10 - 16 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 17 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 10 - 16 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.378 | 102.368 | 0.01 | 75015 | 74561 | 454 | | TF2512 | 105.775 | 105.705 | 0.07 | 161860 | 158704 | 3156 | | T2512 | 108.265 | 108.16 | 0.105 | 266722 | 261675 | 5047 | | TL2512 | 115.73 | 115.02 | 0.71 | 184963 | 182946 | 2017 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0216 | - 0.0216 | 0 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.013 | - 0.0228 | 0.0098 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0256 | 0.0489 | - 0.0233 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1525 | 0.2778 | - 0.1253 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 23759 | 26753 | - 2994 | - | - | - | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47873 | 42876 | 4997 | - | - | - | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 75516 | 62951 | 12565 | - | - | - | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 126789 | 110395 | 16394 | - | - | - | [4][5]