Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-17 11:02Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - Arbitrage: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - Options trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - Geopolitical factors: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - Fundamentals: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - Macro and market sentiment: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - US EIA inventory data: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].