Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-17 11:41Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The asphalt market's peak season shows no better - than - expected performance. With increasing short - term external disturbances, it is recommended to adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Supply: Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has little change. Raw material shortages and heavy oil tightness remain unsolved, keeping the asphalt crack spread high [3]. - Demand: Due to the National Day holiday, the overall spot market trading was dull, mainly consuming social inventory. The short - term peak season did not exceed expectations. Future rainfall in the South will continue to affect demand, making the peak season less prosperous [3]. - Inventory: The inventory structure has improved. Factory inventories are stable with low pressure, and social inventories are being depleted. Pre - holiday stockpiling and the start of rigid demand have led to overall inventory reduction [3]. - Cost: As OPEC continues to increase production, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline. The recent rapid drop in crude oil prices is due to the intensification of Sino - US tariffs and weak risk - asset sentiment [3]. - Price: The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. The Shandong consumption tax reform pilot has not been further expanded [3]. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.52% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.22% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 25%, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. - Procurement Management: For companies with low regular procurement inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50%, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. Price Data - Spot Prices: On October 17, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 110 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and 150 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Base and Crack Spreads: The Shandong spot 12 - contract base was 214 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day and 32 yuan from the previous week; the Shandong spot's crack spread against Brent was 152.8371 yuan/barrel, down 6.9315 yuan from the previous day and 8.5358 yuan from the previous week; the main futures contract's crack spread against Brent was 110.3815 yuan/barrel, down 24.9535 yuan from the previous day and 22.9187 yuan from the previous week [6]. Market Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The anti - involution atmosphere and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's re - emphasis on抵制无序价格战 [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The escalation of Sino - US tariffs, OPEC +'s continued production increase, and the increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in Shandong [3][5].