CECWPC(SH:601016) Huachuang Securities·2025-10-17 13:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][17]. Core Insights - The company is currently facing short-term operational pressures, but the long-term wind power sector presents multiple catalysts for growth. The report emphasizes the importance of future investment opportunities for the company [1][6]. - The report highlights a significant decline in total power generation for Q3 2025, with a total of 25.86 billion kWh, down 7.81% year-on-year. However, offshore wind generation showed a notable increase of 27.03% [6]. - The report outlines that the wind power asset yield is expected to stabilize with the implementation of policy 136, and subsidy issues that have troubled the industry are anticipated to gradually resolve, improving cash flow for companies [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 5,027 million, with a slight decline expected in 2025 to 5,003 million, followed by an increase to 5,608 million in 2026 and 5,939 million in 2027. The year-on-year growth rates are projected at -1.7%, -0.5%, 12.1%, and 5.9% respectively [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,330 million in 2024, decreasing to 1,211 million in 2025, before rising to 1,538 million in 2026 and 1,626 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -12.0%, -9.0%, 27.0%, and 5.7% [2][7]. - The report provides a target price of 4.3 yuan for 2026, which represents a potential upside of approximately 37% from the current price of 3.14 yuan [2][6]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the clear goals for new energy development set by the government, aiming for non-fossil energy consumption to account for over 30% of total energy consumption by 2035, with wind and solar power capacity expected to increase significantly [6]. - Offshore wind power is identified as a potential growth opportunity, with government policies expected to drive development in this area. The report notes that offshore wind resources are primarily located in coastal provinces with high electricity demand, suggesting a favorable growth environment [6].