PVC周报：本周库存去化，现货止跌-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are poor, with the supply-demand situation being supply - strong and demand - weak. The comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined to a low level for the year, but the supply - side maintenance volume is small, and the output is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new devices will start trial operations. Domestically, downstream construction has declined, and domestic demand is weak. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented soon, and the export outlook for the fourth quarter is poor. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it still cannot support the supply - demand situation that is weaker than in the first half of the year. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,425 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,830 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 730 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has slightly recovered, while the profit from ethylene - based production is at a low level, and the current valuation is moderately low [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.7%, a 5.9% decline from the previous week. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 74.7%, down 8.2% week - on - week, and that of ethylene - based production is 81.3%, down 0.6% week - on - week. Last week, the supply - side load decreased mainly due to maintenance at enterprises such as Xinfeng, Lutai Chemical, Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Jinyuyuan, Tianye, and Zhongtai. The load is expected to rebound next week. The overall load in October is still expected to be high, and multiple devices are expected to start trial operations, resulting in continuous high supply pressure [11]. - Demand: Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented in October - November, and exports are expected to decline after implementation. The construction rates of the three major downstream sectors decreased last week. The load of the pipe sector is 32.8%, down 7.6% week - on - week; the load of the film sector is 68.9%, up 5% week - on - week; the load of the profile sector is 15.9%, down 23% week - on - week. The overall downstream load is 39.2%, down 8.6% week - on - week, indicating weak overall downstream construction. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 55.6 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 36 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 103.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous week; the total inventory was 139.4 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The industry is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, with upstream inventory gradually shifting to the mid - stream. Given the supply - strong and demand - weak situation, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple graphs are presented, including those showing the PVC term structure, the price of East China SG - 5 PVC, the PVC spot basis, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC, the positions and trading volumes of active PVC contracts, and the total positions and trading volumes of PVC. These graphs are sourced from WIND, Steel Union, and the research center of Wukang Futures [15][16][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased this week, and the number of warehouse receipts was at a high level. Graphs show the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide - based PVC, the social inventory of PVC, the combined in - factory and social inventory of PVC, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts [32][39]. - Profit: Graphs show the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration with externally purchased calcium carbide in Shandong, the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production, the profit of ethylene - based PVC production, and the profit of calcium carbide production in Inner Mongolia [40]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium Carbide: Calcium carbide prices have stabilized. Graphs show the prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide production start - up rate [46][47]. - Semi - coke and Caustic Soda: The prices of semi - coke and caustic soda have remained stable. Graphs show the market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi, the self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, and the market price of liquid chlorine in Shandong [48][49]. - Ethylene: The graph shows the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene [52]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity expansion of PVC is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. Graphs show the historical trend of PVC capacity, the newly - added PVC production capacity in 2025, and the raw materials consumed by the newly - added PVC production capacity in 2025 [57][60][62]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Construction: The construction rates of the three major downstream sectors of PVC have declined. Graphs show the construction rates of PVC downstream sectors, including film, profile, and pipe sectors [73][75][77]. - Exports: The anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented soon, which may lead to a decline in exports. Graphs show the export volume of PVC and the export volume of PVC to India [82][85]. - Pre - sales: The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. The graph shows the pre - sales volume of PVC [87]. - Real Estate Indicator: The graph shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area [89].