高频跟踪周报20251018：地产销售“环比升、同比降”-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the transaction volume of new real - estate properties increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while the transaction volume of second - hand properties increased month - on - month. Automobile consumption heated up, and movie box office decreased. The demand for consumption showed differentiation. [1][2] - In the production field, the operating rates showed differentiation. The PTA operating rate decreased, and the petroleum asphalt operating rate increased. [1][3] - In terms of investment, the apparent consumption of rebar recovered, but its price decreased. The cement price and inventory - to - capacity ratio were lower than the same period last year. [1][4] - Commodity futures prices fluctuated. Futures prices of non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and copper led the gains. [1][5] - The central government highly values the continuous pressure on the real - estate market. Recently, first - tier cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, and it is expected that the real - estate policy toolbox may be further opened, aiming for a soft - landing of the market. [1][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Demand - Real - estate: The transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand properties in key cities increased month - on - month. As of the week of October 17, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 242.9 million square meters, up 166% month - on - month and down 22% year - on - year. [2][11] - Consumption: Automobile consumption heated up rapidly, with the daily average retail sales of passenger cars up 94.1% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year. Movie consumption decreased year - on - year, with the national movie box office down 78.3% month - on - month and 38.5% year - on - year. The national migration scale index continued to decline, and subway ridership in first - tier cities increased. [2][36] 3.2 Production - Mid - and upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces increased 1.1% month - on - month, the PTA operating rate decreased 1.6% month - on - month, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained flat, the rebar operating rate increased 1.3 pct to 41.3%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased 1.3 pct to 35.8%. [45] - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile tires recovered. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased 20.6% month - on - month, and that of semi - steel tires increased 26.2% month - on - month. [45] 3.3 Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar increased 50.5% month - on - month to 219.8 million tons, and the price decreased 1.1% month - on - month to 3224.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt price decreased 3.9% month - on - month to 3231 yuan/ton. [64] - Cement: As of the week of October 17, the cement price index decreased 1.9% month - on - month to 102.8 points. As of the week of October 10, the cement shipping rate decreased 2.1 pct to 37.9%, and the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased 1.7 pct to 63.3%. [64] 3.4 Trade - Export: The container throughput of ports decreased 6.1% month - on - month and was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased 4.1% month - on - month. The freight rates of European, East - American, and West - American routes decreased month - on - month. The BDI index increased 5.9% month - on - month. [76] - Import: The CICFI composite index was 633.2 points, down 2.2% month - on - month. [76] 3.5 Price - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased 0.4% month - on - month. The prices of pork and eggs decreased, while the prices of vegetables and fruits increased month - on - month. [5][89] - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased 2.2% month - on - month. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased 6.1% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased 5.0% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price decreased 1.2% month - on - month. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and copper led the gains, while hot - rolled coils, asphalt, and glass led the losses. [5][96] 3.6 Interest - Bearing Bond Tracking - Next week (October 20 - 24), the planned issuance of interest - bearing bonds is 91.42 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 7.74 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 63.3 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 3.25 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 24.72 billion yuan, with a net financing of 16.58 billion yuan; the issuance of policy - financial bonds is 3.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 21.06 billion yuan. [6][113] - As of October 17, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reached 99.6%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 84.0%. [6][115][117] 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - High - level meetings: On October 14, Li Qiang presided over a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments. [124] - Monetary policy: On October 15, the central bank carried out a 60 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for 6 months. [124] - Fiscal policy: The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue in advance the new local government debt limit for 2026. [124] - Macro data: In September, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars increased year - on - year. The year - on - year decline of CPI narrowed to 0.3%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low this year. [124] - Overseas news: OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast. Powell hinted at a possible interest - rate cut, and the Fed's Beige Book showed that the US economic activity changed little. [124][125] - Real - estate policy: Shanghai will implement urban renewal, Tianjin allowed the withdrawal of housing provident funds for elevator installation in existing residential buildings, and Chengdu implemented a new policy for converting commercial housing loans to provident fund loans. [125]