TSMC(US:TSM) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-19 00:14Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The OCP summit showcased advancements in optical communication, liquid cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating accelerated development in these areas [10][11] - TSMC raised its capital expenditure guidance due to strong AI demand, projecting a total capital expenditure of USD 40-42 billion for 2025, up from the previous guidance of USD 38-42 billion [12] - The report emphasizes three main investment lines: optical communication, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - The OCP summit highlighted significant developments in optical communication, liquid cooling, and power supply sectors [10] - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance was raised, reflecting robust AI demand [12] - Investment suggestions focus on the computing power supply chain and AI applications [13][14] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of August 2025, China had 4.646 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 395,000 stations from the end of 2024 [24] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.154 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.46% [24] - 5G mobile phone shipments in June 2025 were 18.436 million units, accounting for 81.6% of total shipments, but showed a year-on-year decline of 16.7% [24] 3. Operator Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's cloud revenue reached CNY 56.1 billion, up 11.3% year-on-year; China Telecom's cloud revenue was CNY 57.3 billion, up 3.8%; and China Unicom's cloud revenue was CNY 37.6 billion, up 4.6% [39] - The ARPU values for the three major operators remained stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [39][42]