Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, and its valuation is also high. The trend remains weak, but due to many important macro - events recently, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium - term, there is a trend of inventory accumulation [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices both domestically and internationally over the years, including basis trends of different manufacturers and monthly spreads such as 5 - 9, 1 - 5, etc., as well as domestic and international spot price trends of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20] 2. Domestic Supply 2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity in 2025 continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 million tons, with many enterprises having new capacity or device resumption [24] 2.2 Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including different types such as normal maintenance, policy - based maintenance, fault - based maintenance, and loss (cost) - based maintenance. The loss of production volume varies among different enterprises [27] 2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, and production volume of coal - based and gas - based urea in China [28][29] 2.4 Cost - The raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi and historical cost trends of different production processes of urea [31] 2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, and the report shows the profit trends of different production processes of urea over the years [36] 2.6 Net Import (Export) - After the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 to 2025 [42] 3. Domestic Demand 3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, with strong demand in some months. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The report also shows the cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [48][51][55] 3.2 Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [57] - Melamine: It shows the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine [58][59][60] - Real Estate and Wood Products: The demand for wood - based panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but wood - based panel exports are resilient. The report provides relevant export and real - estate construction and completion data [61][62] 4. Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1615400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, 2025 (week 42), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 446000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.47% [63][66] 5. International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [69][70][71][72][73]
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