GCL TECH(HK:03800) Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-19 08:13Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a more defined lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long at low prices. For polysilicon, the spot price in October is expected to remain flat, and it is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [3][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 255 yuan/ton to 8430 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton and 8750 yuan/ton respectively. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 3375 yuan/ton to 52340 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 53200 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Focuses on Cost Floor, Polysilicon Subject to Large News - Driven Fluctuations - Industrial Silicon: The futures main contract weakened. Northern large factories resumed production, while some southern silicon factories cut production in advance. It is expected that there will be more significant production cuts at the end of October. The social inventory increased by 1.7 tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.01 tons compared to before the holiday. It is difficult to reduce inventory in November, and 1.5 tons of inventory will be reduced in December [1][11] - Organic Silicon: The price increased slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.99%, the weekly output was 4.63 tons (a decrease of 2.73% month - on - month), and the inventory was 4.18 tons (a decrease of 2.56% month - on - month). The price is expected to oscillate strongly [11][12] - Polysilicon: The futures main contract rose. The spot price of first - tier manufacturers' dense material remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that of second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. The spot trading volume was low after the holiday. The production volume in October is expected to be about 13.8 tons, and it will significantly decrease from November to December. The factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 25.3 tons (an increase of 1.3 tons month - on - month), and the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 22.2 tons (an increase of 1.4 tons month - on - month). The spot price is expected to remain flat [2][13] - Silicon Wafers: The prices of some models decreased slightly. The actual final output in October may be higher than expected. As of October 16, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 17.31GW (an increase of 0.53GW month - on - month). The price is under pressure, and production cuts are needed to support it [14] - Battery Cells: The price trend was divided. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells remained flat, while that of G12R battery cells decreased to 0.285 yuan/W. As of October 13, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 6.63GW (an increase of 0.66GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 58.65GW (a decrease of 1.5GW month - on - month) [15] - Components: The price remained basically stable. As of October 13, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 34.2GW (an increase of 0.6GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The demand from November to December may not be optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial Silicon: Due to weak fundamentals and poor macro - sentiment, the futures market weakened this week. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [3][17] - Polysilicon: It is maintained that the spot price will not fall in October. The market has rebounded significantly. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton [3][17] 4. Hot News Summary - GCL Technology achieved a profit in the third quarter of 2025, with a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [18] - In Gansu, the mechanism electricity prices for wind and solar power are the same at 0.1954 yuan/kWh, with a mechanism electricity volume of 830 million kWh [18] - In Xinjiang, the mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 18.5 billion kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 3.6 billion kWh [19] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial Silicon: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [20][24][30] - Organic Silicon: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31][32][33] - Polysilicon: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [35][37][38] - Silicon Wafers: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43][45] - Battery Cells: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [46][49][52] - Components: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [54][57][59]