Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-19 08:28Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot market for live pigs saw price fluctuations. Group slaughter schedules returned to normal, with farmers reluctant to sell, resulting in a loose supply. Post - festival slaughter volume decreased, but some second - fattening operations actively entered the market. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. In the futures market, prices were weak, and the basis of the LH2511 contract changed from negative to positive [1][2] - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is on the rise, and demand is decreasing. The inventory cycle will shift from inventory accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still searching for a bottom. For the LH2511 futures contract, attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review (10.13 - 10.19) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 20.4 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan rose from 11.13 yuan/kg last week to 11.38 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,566 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight was 124.67KG, a 0.17% increase from last week [1] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract of live pig futures had a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,020 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,050 yuan/ton (compared to 11,320 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 330 yuan/ton (compared to - 190 yuan/ton last week) [2] 2. Market Outlook (10.20 - 10.26) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The inventory cycle is shifting from accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract price closed at 11,050 yuan/ton on October 17th. With group incremental slaughter and second - fattening re - entering the market, the inventory cycle is still in the passive accumulation stage. The 11 - month contract is still at a premium near delivery. Attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - This week's basis was 330 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread was - 620 yuan/ton [10] - In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; pork imports were 81,700 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month decrease [12]