Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-19 09:12Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Zinc shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic", and the export window has opened [2][3][5] - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventory continues, while the galvanizing operation rate has rebounded [3] - Domestic supply pressure remains high, with the traditional peak consumption season approaching its end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure [5] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and reverse arbitrage has a certain profit - loss ratio [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the night - session closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,942.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 88,687 lots, a decrease of 86,091 lots compared to the previous week; the open interest was 77,222 lots, a decrease of 29,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11,101 lots, a decrease of 5,565 lots; the open interest was 224,271 lots, an increase of 4,032 lots [6] - Inventory Changes: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6,673 tons to 67,317 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,677 tons to 109,627 tons; social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 162,700 tons; LME zinc inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [10][11] 3.2.3 Operation Rate - The smelting operation rate has declined, and the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp and a significant change in the LME CASH - 3M structure [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - shaped structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The LME total inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a historical low. The bonded area inventory remains stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased [39] - Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high [40] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased and is at a historical high. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historical high. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Secondary Zinc Raw Materials - Not comprehensively summarized in the report 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive, the downstream monthly operation rate has slightly rebounded, and most are at a historical low - to - median level. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [56][59][73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, but no comprehensive conclusion is drawn [74][75][76]