A股趋势与风格定量观察：量能超预期走弱，暂时调降看好程度

• The "Growth-Value Style Rotation Model" suggests overweighting growth stocks based on quantitative economic cycle analysis, where a high profit cycle slope and strong credit cycle favor growth, while high interest rate levels favor value. The model combines signals from fundamentals, valuation, and sentiment to recommend growth allocation[29][30][31] - The "Growth-Value Style Rotation Strategy" has achieved an annualized return of 13.10% since 2012, outperforming the benchmark's 7.77% annualized return. The strategy's annualized excess return is 5.33%, with a maximum drawdown of 43.07% compared to the benchmark's 44.13%[30][32] - The "Small-Cap vs Large-Cap Style Rotation Model" is constructed using 11 effective rotation indicators, including market sentiment concentration, Beta dispersion, and volatility risk. Currently, 7 indicators favor large-cap stocks, maintaining a recommendation to overweight large-cap style[33][34] - The "Small-Cap vs Large-Cap Style Rotation Strategy" has delivered an annualized excess return of 9.91% this year, with a shift from small-cap allocation in the first half to large-cap allocation in the second half. Since 2014, the strategy has consistently generated positive excess returns annually[34][35] - The "Short-Term Timing Strategy" integrates signals from fundamentals, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity. This week, the strategy turned cautious due to weak manufacturing PMI, high PE and PB valuation levels, and subdued market sentiment. Liquidity signals remain neutral[19][20][21] - The "Short-Term Timing Strategy" has achieved an annualized return of 16.52% since 2012, significantly outperforming the benchmark's 4.73%. The strategy's annualized excess return is 11.79%, with a maximum drawdown of 15.49% compared to the benchmark's 31.41%. This year, the strategy has delivered a return of 23.22%, with an excess return of 11.16%[21][24][27]