思源电气（002028）：海外订单高增，合资布局IGCT阀组

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.827 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.191 billion RMB, up 46.94% year-over-year [3][8] - The company is recognized as a leading private enterprise in the electrical equipment sector, demonstrating strong alpha attributes and robust internal and external growth dynamics [3][8] - The company has made significant strides in overseas markets, particularly in high-end sectors, and has seen rapid growth in orders from the data center sector [3][5][8] - The collaboration with the Huairou Laboratory to develop IGCT technology is strategically significant for the company [3][6][8] Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.33 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 25.68%, and a net profit of 899 million RMB, up 48.73% year-over-year [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 33.25%, with both gross and net margins showing sequential improvements [4] Market Dynamics - The company is benefiting from a surge in overseas orders, particularly driven by AI and increased capital expenditures in the power grid by European and American companies [5] - The domestic transformer export value reached 5.55 billion USD from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37.7% [5] Order Growth and Strategic Initiatives - The company has seen a significant increase in domestic orders for power transmission and transformation equipment, with a total bidding amount of 68.19 billion RMB in the first four batches of 2025, up 22.9% year-over-year [6] - The establishment of a joint venture with the Huairou Laboratory for IGCT technology is expected to enhance the company's position in the domestic power transmission and transformation equipment market [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 2.922 billion RMB, 3.851 billion RMB, and 4.906 billion RMB respectively [7] - The target price for the company is set at 147.90 RMB, based on a 30x PE ratio for 2026 [7][8]