Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-19 13:19Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent propylene 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The spot market, especially in Shandong, is affected by the start - up of some devices, leading to a loose supply. The decline in the price of propane in the outer market has caused the collapse of PDH costs, and with insufficient terminal demand, propylene/PP prices have followed suit. The propylene trend remains highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread fluctuates around 500 - 550 yuan/ton [2]. - In the near - term, due to the collapse of the cost side and the loose spot market, both the spot and the futures market have weakened. In the long - term, factors such as supply - side production expectations, PP terminal demand falling short of supply growth leading to inventory accumulation, and pressure from increased supply on the cost side, with the weakening of CP/FEI in the long - term, will affect the propylene market [4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the external supply has increased, and the gap between supply and demand in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP powder, granules, and propylene is still small, and the ability to absorb high - priced propylene is insufficient. Most other downstream products also have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. - The PDH cost has collapsed. The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The outer - market prices have weakened, with the current CP - calculated cost at 5,950 yuan/ton and the FEI - calculated cost at 5,800 yuan/ton [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the PL01 price range at 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to wait and see for now as the valuation is not high and the propane cost for PDH remains weak [16]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - Basis Strategy: The basis is expected to be volatile. This week, the basis has widened, with both the spot and the futures market weakening, and the futures market being relatively weaker [17]. - Calendar Spread Strategy: It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. The 02 contract has relatively low positions, and the calendar spread fluctuates randomly. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, reverse arbitrage at high prices is still considered [17]. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: It is recommended to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. The spread between PP granules, powder, and propylene is around 340 yuan/ton. After the propylene spot price weakens, the spread has widened slightly. Consider widening the spread when the PP - PL spread is within 500 yuan/ton [18]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The predicted price range for propylene is 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1068 and a historical volatility percentage of 0.6551 over three years [21]. - Hedging Strategy Table: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits. Sell call options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the spot price rises, the selling price can also be locked. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices. Sell put options on PL2601 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the propylene price drops, the spot purchase price can be locked [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The price difference between PP granules, powder, and propylene has widened from a low level, and the PP - end operating rate has increased. Geopolitical issues may still flare up repeatedly [23][24]. - Negative Information: The CP contract price in October has dropped unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15). The propane swap price has continued to fall after the holiday. Sino - US economic and trade issues may continue to fluctuate, causing significant disturbances to the cost side. The spot price has continued to decline, with the price in the Shandong region dropping by 230 yuan/ton compared to last Friday [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - From October 20 - 23, the Fourth Plenary Session will be held. On October 20, data such as LPR and third - quarter GDP will be released. On October 24, data such as US CPI and PMI will be released [27]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: This week, the PL01 contract has continued its downward trend, with a slight decrease in the position. The net position of the main profitable seats has decreased, and there has been no significant change in the long - short list positions. The net short position of profitable seats has increased slightly, the net short position of foreign capital has decreased slightly, and the net short position of retail investors has decreased slightly. Technically, all cycles are in a downward trend, with the moving averages in a short - position arrangement. The decline on the hourly chart has slowed down slightly [25]. - Basis and Calendar Spread Structure: This week, the propylene 01 basis is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan/ton compared to last week. Both the spot and the futures market have declined, with the futures market being relatively weaker. The propylene 01 - 02 calendar spread is - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week. The overall trend is conducive to reverse arbitrage and remains volatile [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking - Upstream Profit: This week, the gross profit of major refineries is 547.82 yuan/ton (- 71.31 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries is 225.77 yuan/ton (- 23.42 yuan/ton). The cracking operating rate has slightly decreased with the profit [31]. - Midstream Profit: The Asian naphtha cracking profit is - $12/ton (+$27/ton), and the Asian propane cracking profit is $48/ton (+$35/ton). After the overseas propane price drops, the propane cracking profit has increased. The PDH profit based on FEI cost is 372 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and the PDH profit based on CP cost is 247 yuan/ton (- 235 yuan/ton), with the PDH profit shrinking from a high level [34]. - Downstream Profit: The price difference between PP拉丝, powder, and propylene is 340 yuan/ton (+ 160 yuan/ton and + 210 yuan/ton respectively). After the propylene price weakens, the price difference between PP and propylene has widened from a low level. The PO/SM profit of propylene oxide is 977 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 1,070 yuan/ton (+ 46 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin - method profit is 274 yuan/ton (- 7.5 yuan/ton). Recently, the profit of the chlorohydrin - method PO has improved, supporting the operating rate. The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,305 yuan/ton (+ 48 yuan/ton), with little overall change. The acrylic acid profit is + 672 yuan/ton (+ 88 yuan/ton), with improved profit. The butanol profit is - 207 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton), currently in a loss state, and the subsequent operating - rate change should be monitored. The octanol profit is - 0.45 yuan/ton (+ 41 yuan/ton), slightly improved compared to last week, and the subsequent operating - rate change of major external - purchasing units should be monitored. The phenol - acetone profit is - 564 yuan/ton (- 85 yuan/ton), with little change and in a volatile state [36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The Sino - Korean propylene price difference has shown little recent fluctuation, and imports are expected to remain at a high level [48]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Shandong Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market have decreased. The supply reduction comes from the maintenance of devices such as Yulong and Jingbo, and the demand reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of the PP granule end. The supply - demand gap is expected to become looser again in late October as the maintenance devices resume operation [50]. 5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection This week, there have been both start - ups and shutdowns. The overall propylene operating rate is 74.44% (- 0.99%), still at a high level. The supply reduction mainly comes from the maintenance of steam cracking at Guangzhou Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong, PDH at Wanda Tianhong and Tianjin Bohua, light - hydrocarbon cracking at Jingbo, and MTO at Qinghai Salt Lake. The production in the Shandong region is expected to partially recover in late October [52]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The demand in the Shandong region has increased this week, mainly due to the复产 of PP devices. For PP granules, Jineng's 3PP has复产, and its 2PP is under maintenance; Yulong's 3PP and 5PP have had short - term shutdowns, and currently, its 4PP is shut down; Dongming Petrochemical is under maintenance. For PP powder, Shufukang's new factory has a special - purpose granule production line, and one line of Dongfang Hongye has restarted. For propylene oxide, Lihuayi and Jinling Chemical are shut down, Binhua has reduced its load, and Wanhua Penglai has increased its load (Shandong Minxiang is in the feeding stage). Luxi Chemical has slightly increased its load. For acrylonitrile, there has been no device change. For acrylic acid, Qilu Kaitai has reduced its load, Wanhua and Shandong Hengxin have increased their loads, and Qixiang Tengda is under maintenance. For butanol and octanol, there have been few device changes. For phenol - acetone, there has been no device change, and Shandong Fuyu is under maintenance [93][94].