GCL TECH(HK:03800) BOCOM International·2025-10-20 03:04Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK) [2][11]. Core Views - The significant increase in polysilicon prices has led the company to turn a profit, with the third quarter of 2025 showing a profit of 960 million RMB, aided by a rise in polysilicon prices from 34,000 RMB to 50,000 RMB per ton since late July [7]. - The company plans to raise capital through a share issuance to Infini Global Master Fund at 1.15 HKD per share, with proceeds allocated for various purposes including capacity restructuring and R&D [7]. - New national energy consumption standards for polysilicon are expected to significantly reduce excess capacity, which will benefit the industry [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 33,700 million RMB in 2023 to 15,001 million RMB in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 25,564 million RMB in 2027E [6][13]. - Net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 4,750 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 2,918 million RMB in 2026 and 4,105 million RMB in 2027 [6][13]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is projected to increase from 39,000 RMB per ton in 2024 to 56,000 RMB per ton in 2026 and 2027 [8]. Market Data - The company's stock closed at 1.29 HKD with a target price adjusted to 1.54 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% [1][11]. - The market capitalization of GCL-Poly is approximately 38,694.48 million HKD, with a year-to-date change of 19.44% [4]. Production and Cost Metrics - The company’s polysilicon production volume is expected to increase from 226,123 tons in 2023 to 416,000 tons by 2027 [8]. - The production cost per ton is projected to decrease from 42,000 RMB in 2023 to 32,000 RMB by 2027, while the gross margin is expected to improve significantly [8]. Analyst Adjustments - The net profit forecast has been revised upward, but the earnings per share for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 3% and 6% respectively due to share dilution from the capital raise [7].