量化观市：从“十五五”挖掘估值合理的板块机会

• The macro timing model recommends a 50% equity allocation for October based on signal strengths of 40% for economic growth and 60% for monetary liquidity[6][47][48] - The macro timing strategy has achieved a return of 13.57% from the beginning of 2025 to date, compared to a 25.65% return for Wind All A Index during the same period[6][47][49] - The rotation model suggests switching to the "Mao Index" style due to the positive slope of the Mao Index's 20-day closing price (0.08%) compared to the negative slope of the micro-cap index (-0.001%)[18][25][27] - The micro-cap timing risk control indicators, including volatility crowding degree (-17.37%) and 10-year government bond yield (-13.46%), indicate that systemic risk is within a controllable range[18][20][25] - Among stock selection factors, reversal factors performed the best last week with an IC mean of 22.65% for all A-shares, followed by technical factors (14.88%) and value factors (25.89%)[51][52][53] - For convertible bonds, quantitative bond selection factors such as stock consensus expectations, stock value, and bond valuation factors achieved positive IC means last week[57][58][59]