Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-10-20 08:51Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon supply is slightly increasing with a north - south difference, while the demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November. The inventory clearance pressure remains, and the short - term industrial silicon futures are expected to fluctuate within a range. For polysilicon, the current supply - demand is weak with large inventory pressure. Although industry meetings have boosted market confidence, the short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation due to weak terminal demand [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures price of the main contract dropped in oscillation, closing at 8,430 yuan/ton on October 17 [6][10]. - Supply: Xinjiang silicon enterprises continued to increase production, reaching the annual high since September. The start - up in Northwest Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu changed little. Yunnan's start - up was stable but will decline in November due to electricity price hikes. Sichuan's start - up slightly decreased. Overall, production increased slightly but is expected to decline next month [6]. - Demand: Polysilicon production remained stable, with a weakening production expectation due to the difference in silicon material enterprises' production scheduling. Organic silicon start - up decreased, and monomer plants carried out routine maintenance. Aluminum alloy enterprises' start - up rate remained stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remained high. In August, the export of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [6]. - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - Inventory: As of October 16, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 562,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons compared to before the holiday [6]. - Market Outlook: The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6]. Polysilicon - Price: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures price of the main contract rebounded in oscillation, closing at 52,340 yuan/ton on October 17 [7][17]. - Supply: Industry meetings were held, and although rumors about stockpiling were mostly false, the industry's capacity clearance and anti - involution continued, and market confidence recovered. The production in October increased month - on - month but will significantly decrease in November due to the dry season [7]. - Demand: Downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see state, and large - scale transactions are expected to start next week. The production scheduling in the silicon wafer segment in Q4 may exceed expectations, which will support the demand for polysilicon. In August, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,005.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%, and the export volume was 299.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40% [7]. - Cost: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - Inventory: The inventory is on the rise, and the procurement rhythm of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. - Market Outlook: The short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [7]. Price and Spread - Industrial Silicon Price and Spread: The spot and spread between the benchmark and alternative delivery products of industrial silicon remained stable. As of October 17, the spread between Yunnan's industrial silicon 553 and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and that of Xinjiang was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [12][14]. - Polysilicon Price and Spread: The spot and spread between the benchmark and alternative delivery products of polysilicon remained stable. As of October 17, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17,000 yuan/ton, and over P - type cauliflower material was 19,500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [19][21]. Cost - Silicon Coal and Silica: As of October 17, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1,140 yuan/ton, and that of Xinjiang was 1,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang's was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [23][25]. - Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price: As of October 17, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong Port was 1,505 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan's was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan's was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [27][29]. - Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes: As of October 17, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and charcoal was 2,450 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The price of high - power graphite electrodes in Jiangsu was 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [31][33]. Downstream - Silicon Wafers: As of October 17, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.35, 1.325, 1.375, and 1.7 yuan/piece respectively. The price of 210RN silicon wafers has shown signs of loosening, and the actual production scheduling in the silicon wafer segment in Q4 may exceed the quota [36]. - Batteries: As of October 17, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries were 0.318, 0.318, 0.287, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with different price changes from last week. The prices of 183N and 210N increased slightly, while 210RN was weak due to oversupply [40]. - Components: As of October 17, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components increased slightly, but the transaction was stagnant. Terminal demand remained weak, and attention should be paid to the start - up of large - scale centralized power station projects [43]. Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - Organic Silicon: As of October 17, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The start - up decreased due to routine maintenance of monomer plants [45][47]. - Aluminum Alloy: As of October 17, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon remained high [49][51].