Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:01Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - The report is titled "Steel Weekly Report 20251020" and focuses on the steel industry [2] - The analysts are Zhou Guisheng and Duan Yiwen [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with cost support and attention to macro changes and demand [6] Group 4: Summary by Section 1.成材 (Finished Products) Supply - The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 2.0116 million tons (-22,400 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils is 3.2184 million tons (-14,500 tons) [5] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1975 million tons (+665,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils was 3.1555 million tons (+205,400 tons) [5] Inventory - Rebar total inventory is 6.4105 million tons (-185,900 tons), social inventory is 4.5641 million tons (-108,900 tons), and steel mill inventory is 1.8464 million tons (-77,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory is 4.1919 million tons (+62,900 tons), social inventory is 3.4134 million tons (+120,400 tons), and steel mill inventory is 778,500 tons (-57,500 tons) [7] Basis - The futures fluctuate, and the basis fluctuates [7] Summary - The steel mill profitability rate has shrunk, iron - water production has decreased but remains high. Some steel mills are under maintenance, blast - furnace operating rate is flat, short - process production has increased, and the total rebar output has decreased slightly. After the holiday, demand has recovered but is still at a low level year - on - year. Inventory has decreased but remains high, and there is still inventory pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coils is weakly balanced, with a slight decrease in production, high inventory, and limited improvement in demand. Terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are under pressure. Pay attention to macro changes and demand, and the cost side still has support. Short - term fluctuations are expected [6] 2. Raw Materials - The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,450 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), and the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1,575 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [13][14] 3. Production and Operation Indicators - As of October 17, 2025, the blast - furnace operating rate remained flat, the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1.79% month - on - month, and iron - water production was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons month - on - month [19] - As of October 17, the steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87% month - on - month [24] - As of October 17, the blast - furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 91.68%, an increase of 1.68% month - on - month [29] 4. Demand and Sales - Rebar consumption increased by 665,700 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 205,400 tons month - on - month [39] - As of October 17, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 97,700 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level [43] - As of October 17, the weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 30,160 tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production was 874,100 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons month - on - month [48] 5. Inventory - As of October 17, Tangshan billet inventory was 444,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons month - on - month. The total inventory of major steel products was 11.2552 million tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons month - on - month [52] 6. Exports - According to customs data, steel exports in August were 9.41 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [66] 7. Downstream Industries Automotive - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, an increase of 466,000 vehicles month - on - month; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles month - on - month; new - energy vehicle sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [70] Real Estate - From January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Housing new - start area decreased by 18.9%, housing completion area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year (with a narrowing decline), new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year (with a 0.8% decline), new - built commercial housing sales revenue decreased by 7.9% year - on - year (with a 0.6% decline), and the funds available to development enterprises decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [73]