铁矿石周报20251020：宏观情绪弱势，盘面震荡回落-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current iron ore supply and demand are slightly weak. Coupled with the recent weak macro - sentiment, the market has adjusted. The strategy is range - bound. This week, an important meeting is held, and attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - From October 13th to 19th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 19.845 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.682 million tons, and from Brazil was 8.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.258 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons [4]. - As of October 17th, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 473,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.66%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77%. The mine concentrate inventory was 933,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,400 tons [4]. - The global shipping volume stopped falling and rebounded week - on - week, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian mines and non - mainstream mines. The arrival volume decreased, and the domestic ore output increased slightly. Overall, the supply was relatively stable [5]. Demand - In the week of October 17th, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.059 million tons. The profitability rate continued to decline, and the pig iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. There was some support from rigid demand for restocking, but the steel mill's profit level continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 23 to 124. The port inventory and the number of ships at the port increased significantly, increasing the port inventory pressure, while the steel mill's inventory remained at a low level [4]. Price and Related Indicators - The spot price fluctuated and declined [6]. - The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [4]. - The steel mill's profitability rate declined, and the imported ore price fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [4]. - The PB powder - Super Special powder spread and the PB powder - Macfarlane powder spread fluctuated at a low level [12][16]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated little, and the 01 basis fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27].