CMSK(SZ:001979) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-20 13:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in sales, with a sales amount of 16.3% year-on-year increase in September 2025, despite a 3.1% decline in sales for the first nine months of 2025 [8] - The company has significantly increased its investment intensity, with a total investment of 75.21 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 160.4% [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance, with projected net profits of 4.32 billion yuan, 5.06 billion yuan, and 5.81 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 20.9X, 17.8X, and 15.5X respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175.01 billion yuan, with a decline of 4.4% year-on-year, followed by a slight increase of 2.3% in 2024 [7] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 6.32 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 48.2% year-on-year, but a decline of 36.1% is anticipated for 2024 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.48 yuan, with a PE ratio of 20.9 [7] Investment Opportunities - The company has acquired high-quality land in the Jing'an District, with a transaction amount of 7.737 billion yuan, which is expected to contribute over 10 billion yuan in sales [8] - The company focuses on core cities and improvement-type products, leading to an increase in average sales price by 22.4% year-on-year to 27,700 yuan per square meter [8]