Runben Biotechnology (SH:603193) HTSC·2025-10-21 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 342 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million RMB, down 2.9% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 22.9%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][7] - The decline in profit margin is attributed to an increase in sales expense ratio and a decrease in interest income, although the overall profit margin remains resilient [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the peak season for infant and child products in Q4, with anticipated growth driven by products like egg yolk oil and lip balm [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3, the revenue from mosquito repellent, infant care, and essential oil series was 132 million, 146 million, and 43 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48.5%, -2.8%, and -7.0% [2] - The average selling prices for these categories were 6.14, 8.51, and 8.87 RMB, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12.0%, 7.9%, and a decrease of 2.4% respectively [2] - The mosquito repellent series saw a significant increase in sales volume, driven by the chikungunya virus outbreak, while the infant care series experienced a price increase that partially offset a decline in sales volume [2] Channel Performance - Online channels showed impressive marginal growth, with Q3 GMV for Douyin, Taobao, and JD.com reaching 780.9 million, 1,295.7 million, and 725.1 million RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 30.6%, 20.6%, and 21.9% respectively [3] - The launch of new products in the youth and children’s series is expected to tap into niche market demands, potentially driving long-term growth [3] Cost Structure - Q3 gross margin was 59.0%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio increased to 29.1%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The increase in sales expenses is primarily due to heightened online market investments, while management and R&D expense ratios saw slight decreases [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 311 million, 387 million, and 465 million RMB, reflecting decreases of 4.9%, 5.8%, and 8.7% from previous estimates [5] - Based on comparable companies, a target price of 32.54 RMB is set for 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 34x, with the rating maintained at "Accumulate" [5]