SEAMILD FOODS(SZ:002956) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-21 02:17Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales growth of consumer goods has shown a marginal decline, primarily due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the diminishing effects of the "old-for-new" policy. However, with the release of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, leading to a gradual recovery in consumer demand for the food and beverage sector. The white liquor industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with a low likelihood of further demand decline. The report suggests appropriate positioning in the white liquor sector due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure. In the mass consumer goods sector, new consumption targets are expected to maintain high growth rates throughout the year, with a focus on new channels, new products, and new markets [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods in September 2025 increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points from August. The food and beverage sector is anticipated to gradually improve as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [4][5]. Subsector Performance - In September 2025, the retail sales growth for grain and oil products, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol was 6.3%, -0.8%, and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively. The beverage sector showed relatively weak consumption, while the tobacco and alcohol sector saw improved growth due to pre-holiday stocking and a slight relaxation of alcohol bans [4][10][12]. Quarterly Insights - In Q3 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to Q2. The food and beverage sectors experienced varying growth rates, with grain and oil products at 6.7%, beverages at 1.4%, and tobacco and alcohol at 0.8%, indicating a general softening in consumer demand [5][6]. Specific Company Insights - The white liquor sector is nearing a demand bottom, with recent policy relaxations leading to a recovery in consumption. Meanwhile, companies like Ximai Foods are accelerating the launch of new products and channels, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity and certainty in 2026 due to sustained raw material cost advantages [6].