有色金属月度策略-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The change in the Sino - US trade relationship has eased, risk appetite has recovered, and non - ferrous metals have slightly recovered. Due to fundamental differences, non - ferrous metal trends are somewhat differentiated, with copper remaining significantly stronger [11]. - China's economic data shows that the economy has both resilience and pressure. The real - estate related areas continue to show pressure, while the manufacturing industry performs well [11]. - The report provides investment suggestions for various non - ferrous metals based on their supply - demand fundamentals, price trends, and macro - economic factors [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: Sino - US trade relations have eased, risk appetite has risen, and non - ferrous metals have slightly recovered. Copper is relatively strong. China's economic data shows mixed results in different sectors [11]. - Investment Suggestions for Each Metal - Copper: Try to gradually go long on Shanghai copper at low prices. The short - term upper pressure range is 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [3][13]. - Zinc: Temporarily wait and see the technical support. If it holds, consider a bull spread or sell out - of - the - money put options. The upper pressure is around 22,500 - 22,600, and the lower support is around 21,700 - 21,800 [4][13]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Temporarily wait and see the pressure at the integer - level. Buy out - of - the - money options for protection. For alumina, adopt a bearish approach and buy out - of - the - money call options for protection. For recycled aluminum alloy, wait and see and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5][14]. - Tin: Add short positions moderately at high prices. The upper pressure range is 290,000 - 300,000, and the lower support range is 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options [6][14]. - Lead: Continue to consider the option double - selling strategy in a wider range. The short - term lower support is 16,700 - 16,800, and the upper pressure is 17,000 - 17,200 [7]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, be slightly bullish at low prices. The upper pressure is 125,000 - 128,000 yuan, and the lower support is 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. For stainless steel, it continues to fluctuate weakly in a range. The support is 12,500 - 12,600, and the upper pressure is 13,000 - 13,200 [8][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper closing at 85,380 with a 1.17% increase, zinc at 21,855 with a 0.18% increase, etc. [16] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report shows the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [18] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals, like the Yangtze River spot copper price at 86,000 yuan/ton with a 1.27% increase, and the Yangtze River 0 zinc spot average price at 21,880 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase [19] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of different non - ferrous metals, such as copper inventory changes, zinc inventory and processing fee changes, etc. [24][27] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report shows charts related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage, including copper's Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [59][61] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides charts related to non - ferrous metal options, such as copper option historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, etc. [77][79]