Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-21 05:55Report Overview - Report Title: Iron "Iron Ore Risk Management Report" released on October 20, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current iron ore market is operating weakly under the dual pressure of macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Sino - US trade friction has curbed market risk appetite, and the fundamentals show a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand". Although the short - term price valuation is low due to the widening basis, the upward drive is insufficient. The future key variables lie in policy signals [3]. Summary by Directory Price Forecast and Strategy - Price Forecast: The price forecast range for the iron ore 11 - contract in October is 760 - 820, with the current at - the - money option IV at 19.80% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For those with current iron ore inventory worried about price drops, strategies include directly short - selling iron ore futures (I2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 800 - 810 and selling call options (I2511 - C - 850) with a 30% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. - Procurement Management: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures (I2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 760 and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790) with a 40% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. Core Contradictions - Macro - level: Sino - US trade friction has led to a significant decline in market risk preference, causing a collective correction in industrial product prices [3]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: Overseas shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories show super - seasonal accumulation. The inventory of 45 ports in the country has increased to around 143 million tons, and the supply remains loose [3]. - Demand: Although the molten iron output is still above 2.4 million tons per day, steel mill profits have shrunk to the break - even point. Weak finished product sales and inventory pressure are transmitted to the raw material end, suppressing iron ore procurement willingness [3]. Price Data - Futures Closing Prices: On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 767, 747.5, and 727.5 respectively, with no daily change and weekly decreases of 15, 13.5, and 12 respectively [5]. - Basis: The 01, 05, and 09 bases on October 21, 2025, were 11, 30.5, and 50.5 respectively, with daily increases of 4, 2.5, and 1 respectively and weekly increases of 19.5, 15.5, and 13.5 respectively [5][7]. - Spot Prices: On October 21, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special fines were 777, 901, and 700 respectively, with daily changes of - 1, 0, and - 5 respectively and weekly decreases of 19, 25, and 20 respectively [7]. - Platts Index: On October 17, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 94.75, 105.3, and 118.9 respectively, with daily decreases of 0.15, 0.65, and 0.65 respectively and weekly decreases of 1.1, 2.1, and 2.4 respectively [8]. Fundamental Data - Production and Consumption: The average daily molten iron output on October 17, 2025, was 240.95, a weekly decrease of 0.59 and a monthly decrease of 0.07 [14]. - Transportation and Inventory: - 45 - Port Data: The 45 - port dredging volume on October 17, 2025, was 315.72, a weekly decrease of 11.28 and a monthly decrease of 15.56. The 45 - port inventory was 142.7827 million tons, a weekly increase of 2.5377 million tons and a monthly increase of 4.288 million tons [14]. - Steel Mill Data: The inventory of 247 steel mills on October 17, 2025, was 89.8273 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.6346 million tons and a monthly decrease of 3.267 million tons. The available days for 247 steel mills were 30.21, a weekly decrease of 0.03 and a monthly decrease of 1.09 [14]. - Global and Regional Shipments: The global shipment volume on October 17, 2025, was 3333.5, a weekly increase of 126 and a monthly increase of 8.7. The Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2740, a weekly increase of 73.5 and a monthly increase of 46.7 [14]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: - The current molten iron output, although slightly decreased month - on - month, is still growing year - on - year and at a seasonal high, supporting the basic demand for iron ore [3]. - The current iron ore basis has increased, and the valuation is relatively low [3]. - The expectation of incremental stimulus policies has risen under the background of weak demand [3]. - Negative Factors: - Sino - US trade friction has led to a significant decline in market risk preference [6]. - Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories show super - seasonal accumulation [6]. - Hot - rolled coil inventories continue to accumulate beyond the season, and overall demand momentum is insufficient [6].