CATL(SZ:300750) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-10-21 05:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with a revenue of 104.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.5 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [1][2] - The company is positioned as a global leader in lithium batteries, benefiting from accelerated capacity expansion and technological breakthroughs. The previous pressure on volume and price due to industry competition is gradually easing, and with the surge in demand for energy storage and commercial vehicles, along with breakthroughs in sodium batteries and solid-state technologies, the company's performance is expected to continue to exceed previous highs [3] Performance Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company shipped over 180 GWh, with actual receipts at 165 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 32% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. The revenue growth is attributed to the stabilization of product prices at 0.55-0.60 RMB/Wh, while costs are estimated to be between 0.40-0.45 RMB/Wh [2] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q3 were 25.8% and 16%, respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1][2] - The company’s inventory at the end of Q3 was 80.2 billion RMB, an 11% increase from the previous quarter, aligning with the growth in shipment volume [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 70.1 billion RMB, 91.5 billion RMB, and 113.4 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 24x, 18x, and 15x [3]