Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-21 06:17Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The EUA is struggling to rise and has not yet broken through the 80 - euro mark. The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Primary Market: The EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton with a 0.22% change, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.98 [1]. - Secondary Market: The EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, a - 0.06% change, and the trading volume was 32,200 lots with a 0.52 change [1]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Influencing Factors - Positive: The IMO net - zero framework vote has been postponed by one year, weakening the impact on the EU's shipping decarbonization framework [1]. - Negative: There are no new negative factors [1]. - Other: Qatar's energy minister stated that if the EU does not relax the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, Qatar will be unable to continue supplying LNG to Europe, and Qatar accounts for 12 - 14% of Europe's LNG supply. Russia demands that Ukraine hand over full control of Donetsk as a condition to end the war [1]. Data Tables - Auction Data: On October 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 1.691 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.98, and the auction revenue was 131.88 million euros [2]. - Futures and Spot Data: On October 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, the trading volume was 32,200 lots, and the open interest was 360,200 lots. The spot settlement price was 79.15 euros/ton, and the trading volume was 896 lots [3].