燕京啤酒（000729）：三季度行业需求偏弱，公司收入增速放缓、利润延续较高增速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10][4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.87 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 26.0% year-on-year [7][10] - Despite a slowdown in total sales growth, the high-end product U8 continues to show strong growth, contributing to an improved product mix [7][9] - The gross margin has continued to improve year-on-year, with a 2.2 percentage point increase in Q3, driven by product mix improvement and lower raw material costs [8][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.0% [7][10] - The sales growth rate for beer volume was 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease from 2.0% in H1, primarily due to weak industry demand and regulatory impacts [7][9] - The revenue per thousand liters of beer increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in product structure [7][9] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, continuing the trend from the previous two quarters [8][10] - The company has successfully reduced management expenses, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreasing year-on-year [8][10] Future Outlook - The company expects stable sales growth in Q4, with continued strong performance from the U8 product line, which is projected to achieve a sales volume of nearly 900,000 tons for the year [9][10] - Long-term profitability is anticipated to improve as the company continues to implement cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [9][10] Earnings Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecast for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 15.37 billion, 16.22 billion, and 17.14 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 5.5%, and 5.7% [10][12] - The net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to 1.57 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.20 billion yuan, with growth rates of 49.1%, 17.7%, and 18.6% respectively [10][12]