南华镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently following the broader market in a volatile pattern, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There are expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for the 2026 quota application. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3]. - The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand. The current quotes have been rising for several consecutive weeks, the market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries, which may remain strong [3]. - The price of ferronickel has insufficient upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity has significantly declined. It may operate weakly under the pressure of stainless - steel profits and weak demand. If ferronickel loses its support, the downward space for the downstream may expand [3]. - The spot trading of stainless steel has improved slightly, leading to a small rebound in the futures market. However, the sentiment of a lackluster peak season is strong. Currently, stainless steel has a large amount of inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum is insufficient compared with the previous continuous destocking cycle. The center of gravity of stainless steel may move down slightly, but export is favorable due to WTO rulings and certification exemptions [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Price and Volatility Forecast - Nickel (Shanghai Futures Exchange): The price range is predicted to be 11,800 - 12,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - Stainless Steel: The price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.79% and a historical percentile of 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - Inventory Management: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. Market Data Nickel - Futures Prices: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,180 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,860 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the LME nickel 3M contract is 15,230 US dollars/ton, down 0.34% [6]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume is 60,391 lots, down 12.28%; the open interest is 50,388 lots, down 14.10% [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts is 27,026 tons, up 0.59% [6]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 52.0% [6]. Stainless Steel - Futures Prices: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,665 yuan/ton, up 1%; the stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,595 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the stainless - steel continuous - two contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the stainless - steel continuous - three contract is 12,780 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume is 126,078 lots, up 1.04%; the open interest is 188,332 lots, down 4.98% [7]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,497 tons, down 0.16% [7]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract is 775 yuan/ton, up 4.73% [7]. Inventory Data - Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel: 47,708 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - LME Nickel Inventory: 250,476 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - Stainless - Steel Social Inventory: 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. - Ferronickel Inventory: 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6]. - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter [6]. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [5][6]. - The exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [5][6]. Negative Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6]. - The center of gravity of ferronickel has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened [6]. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation stage [6]. - The stainless - steel market shows a lackluster peak season, and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].