Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-21 11:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has achieved a significant improvement in product structure and cost optimization, leading to a continued breakthrough in profitability. The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 has surpassed 50%, driven by the rapid growth of the U8 product line and a decrease in unit costs [1][10]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, reflecting strong growth potential and improved net profit margins. The target price has been raised to 16.00 yuan based on a 28X price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [10][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 14,213 million yuan in 2023 to 17,143 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.9% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 645 million yuan in 2023 to 2,319 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate of 83.0% in 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.23 yuan in 2023 to 0.82 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 4.7% in 2023 to 13.2% in 2027 [3]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 10.01 to 14.36 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 35,204 million yuan [5]. - The stock has shown a 20% increase over the past 12 months, indicating a positive market sentiment [9]. Operational Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.55%. The net profit for the same period was 6.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.00% [10]. - The company’s beer sales volume in Q3 2025 was 114.35 thousand tons, with a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year. The unit revenue per ton was 4,263 yuan, up by 1.45% year-on-year [10]. - The company has implemented a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 2.82 billion yuan [10].