TSMC(US:TSM) Guohai Securities·2025-10-21 14:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) [1][7] Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching NT$989.92 billion (US$33.10 billion), a QoQ increase of 6.0% and YoY growth of 30.3% [3] - The company also reported a net profit of NT$452.30 billion, reflecting a QoQ increase of 13.6% and YoY growth of 39.1% [3] - TSMC's Q4 2025 guidance is optimistic, with expected revenue between US$32.2 billion and US$33.4 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of US$31.23 billion [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$989.92 billion (US$33.10 billion), exceeding the guidance range of US$31.8 billion to US$33 billion and Bloomberg's consensus of NT$967.70 billion [3][4] - Gross margin for Q3 was 59.5%, higher than the guidance of 55.5%-57.5% and Bloomberg's estimate of approximately 57.1% [4] - The diluted EPS for Q3 was NT$17.44, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of NT$15.80 [4] Future Guidance - TSMC has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 from approximately 30% to nearly mid-30% [4] - The capital expenditure guidance for 2025 has been narrowed to US$40 billion to US$42 billion [4] - For Q4 2025, TSMC expects revenue of US$32.2 billion to US$33.4 billion, with a gross margin of 59%-61% [4] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for TSMC from 2025 to 2027 are NT$37,976 billion, NT$45,885 billion, and NT$54,205 billion respectively [5] - Expected net profits for the same period are NT$16,939 billion, NT$19,678 billion, and NT$23,005 billion respectively [5] - The diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be NT$65.33, NT$75.89, and NT$88.72 respectively [5]