百亚股份（003006）：外围省份延续高增，电商重回增长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.62 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 245 million RMB, up 2.5% year-on-year. However, the net profit for the third quarter decreased by 3.9% due to short-term public sentiment issues and platform strategy adjustments affecting online sales [1][2]. - The company is expected to recover growth in its online channels as the impact of public sentiment diminishes and adjustments in e-commerce channels are completed. The offline channels continue to show strong growth, particularly in provinces outside the core five regions, which saw a 94% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - The company’s gross margin remained stable at 55.6%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The operating cash flow improved, with a net inflow of 87 million RMB in the third quarter [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 859 million RMB, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year. The revenue from the offline channel was 491 million RMB, up 27.2%, while the e-commerce channel revenue was 341 million RMB, down 11.4% [2][3]. - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for the third quarter was 55.6%, and the net profit margin was 6.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [3]. - The report projects a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 9%, 6%, and 3%, respectively, with expected net profits of 337 million RMB, 460 million RMB, and 636 million RMB for those years [4]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 32.10 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times for 2026, reflecting the company's strong brand recognition and market expansion potential [4][6].