燕京啤酒（000729）：U8保持良好增长，利润弹性持续释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company has shown good growth with a revenue of 13.433 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.770 billion yuan, up 37.45% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to benefit from product structure upgrades and maintains a strong growth trend for its flagship product, U8, which has positively impacted market dynamics and profitability [5] - The report anticipates revenue growth of 5%, 4%, and 4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 51%, 19%, and 13% during the same period [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 14.213 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 645 million yuan, reflecting an 83% increase year-on-year [2] - The company’s beer sales volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.4952 million kiloliters, a 1.39% increase year-on-year, while the revenue per ton of beer increased by 3.13% to 3,843 yuan per kiloliter [5] - The gross profit margin improved by 2.10 percentage points to 47.19% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by product upgrades and cost reductions [5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 includes revenues of 15.427 billion yuan, 16.099 billion yuan, and 16.686 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.597 billion yuan, 1.895 billion yuan, and 2.142 billion yuan [5][7] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.57 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.76 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.0, 17.7, and 15.7 [5][7] Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 33.597 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 29.915 billion yuan [3] - The company is positioned to outperform the market, with expectations of a relative increase in stock price compared to benchmark indices over the next 6-12 months [8]