Sungrow Power Supply(SZ:300274) HTSC·2025-10-22 11:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 195.40 per share [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the value reassessment logic for the company as a leader in power electronics, highlighting the sustained growth potential in energy storage and international expansion [1][17]. - Short-term demand fluctuations are not a major concern, as independent energy storage is expected to see significant growth due to peak shaving needs and capacity pricing incentives [10][18]. - The transition to system parity for energy storage is seen as a core beneficiary direction, with the industry reassessment just beginning [3][21]. Summary by Sections Company Positioning - The company is positioned as a leader in power electronics, with a strong foothold in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage systems, and is expanding into hydrogen energy and AIDC [1][4][17]. - The company achieved a global market share of 25% in photovoltaic inverter shipments and 14% in energy storage shipments in 2024 [17]. Short-term Demand Concerns - The report indicates that the domestic peak shaving gap is widening, leading to a phase of high growth in independent energy storage, supported by new capacity pricing mechanisms [10][18]. - The introduction of capacity pricing has significantly improved the economic viability of energy storage projects, as demonstrated by a case study in Gansu [18]. Long-term Growth Drivers - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.5% for global energy storage installations from 2024 to 2030, with a projected total of 1556 GWh of new installations by 2030 [3][21]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in data center loads in the U.S. and the acceleration of large storage capacity tenders in Europe and other regions [1][3]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach RMB 155.4 billion, RMB 186.2 billion, and RMB 216.7 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with significant upward revisions from previous estimates [5][9]. - The report anticipates an increase in earnings per share (EPS) to RMB 7.50, RMB 8.98, and RMB 10.45 for the same years [5][9]. Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21.76x for 2026, reflecting an increase from previous estimates, and suggests that the company’s valuation recovery is still in its early stages [5][9].