复盘系列（三）：四季度是否存在风格切换

• The report discusses the seasonal characteristics of the A-share market in Q4, highlighting a tendency for slight upward movement driven by year-end policy signals and marginal improvements in the funding environment[65][66][55] - Large-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 300 index, typically outperform small-cap stocks in Q4 due to their defensive attributes and institutional fund reallocation preferences. Historical data shows a CSI 300 win rate of 61% and median return of 1.63%, compared to the CSI 1000's win rate of 39% and median return of -1.60%[19][20][27] - Micro-cap stocks exhibit strong resilience in Q4, with a win rate of 78% and median return of 7.35%. This performance is attributed to factors such as liquidity preferences post-holiday and supportive policies for small and micro enterprises[29][30][33] - Growth and dividend styles show distinct characteristics in Q4. Growth stocks often face volatility due to profit-taking and valuation rebalancing, while dividend stocks demonstrate stability with a win rate of 56% and median return of 0.87%[35][38][40] - Industry rankings experience significant shifts in Q4, with most leading industries from the first three quarters dropping in rank, while new leaders emerge due to policy catalysts or valuation adjustments. Stable industries typically benefit from consistent policy support, solid fundamentals, and uninterrupted fund allocation[44][48][50]